Showing posts with label Indian Markets Outlook. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Indian Markets Outlook. Show all posts

Indian Market Weekly Outlook & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook for the Week - 19.Sep.2016 to 23.Sep.2016

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 19.Sep.2016 to 23.Sep.2016
(Positive next week; Fed, Bank of Japan policy meets eyed)
( www.rupeedesk.in )
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Metal Stocks Outlook for the week – 19 to 23.09.2016 Expected to remain subdued next week

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Indian Market Outlook for the week – 19 to 23.09.2016 Positive next week; Fed, Bank of Japan policy meets eyed

( www.rupeedesk.in )
Share indices are seen positive next week, even as investors wait for the monetary policy decisions of
the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. Expectations of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve
at its Sep 20-21 meet have come down to less than 50% after data in the world's largest economy
showed a decline in US retail sales and factory output for August. "If the US hikes rates, we are
looking at a 1-day fall in (the) Indian share market. The Nifty (50) may tank by 100-150 points but
will recover then. While the impact of the US Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting on Indian
markets will be seen on Thursday, the effect of Bank of Japan's policy will be seen on Wednesday.

Views on the course of action that may be adopted by the Bank of Japan, are mixed. Some traders
expect the bank to launch fresh monetary stimulus, but another section of the market does not see it
easing its accommodative stance further. Yesterday, the Nifty 50 ended at 8779.85, up 37.30 points
or 0.4% from the previous close, and the Sensex closed at 28599.03, up 186.14 points or 0.7%. Next
week, stocks of rate-sensitive sectors such as automobiles and banks, are likely to see buying as the
next Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy draws closer. The central bank is expected to cut
interest rates in October, owing to lower-than-estimated inflation for August and expectations of
normal monsoons this year.

In the Jun-Sep monsoon season so far, the country has received 771.8 mm weighted-average
rainfall, 5% below the normal of 814.2 mm for the period, according to data from the India
Meteorological Department. Automobile and auto-ancillary stocks may also gain as demand is seen
growing during the festival season. Yesterday, the sector was the leading gainer with the Nifty Auto
index ending up 0.5%. Activity in the domestic stock market may be subdued over the next two
weeks owing to the Pitru Paksha period. This is usual for markets and trade is a little subdued during
Pitru Paksha. Pitru Paksha is a 16-day period in the Hindu calendar that is considered inauspicious.

Another sector that might see traction is the pharmaceutical sector. Sentiment for the sector is
positive given the resolution of various regulatory issues, and on account of investors shifting
allocations between sectors. Pharmaceutical companies have been in the limelight and the Nifty
Pharma gained over 2% this week, compared to a near 1% fall in the Nifty 50.
( www.rupeedesk.in )
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Indian Market Weekly Outlook & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook for the Week - .27Jun.2016 to 1.Jul.2016

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Indian Market Outlook for the week – 27.06.2016 to 01.07.2016, To recover next week; F&O rollovers eyed

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Indian Market Outlook for the week – 27.06.2016 to 01.07.2016, To recover next week; F&O rollovers eyed

( www.rupeedesk.in ) 

Indian equities are likely to recoup losses made on account of the UK's vote to exit the European
Union and show resilience in the coming week since the focus is seen shifting to domestic triggers
such as the progress of monsoon. Market participants believe the impact of 'Brexit' is not likely to
sustain and the underlying bias is positive, although the market will closely monitor global
developments, particularly in Europe.

Volatility is likely as the June derivative series will expire on Thursday, with investors rolling over their positions to the July series. The fact that markets recovered partially shows that the worst is over. This is a good opportunity to buy on dips.

During the week, Nifty 50 is seen trading in the range of 8000-8300 points. Yesterday, the index
ended well above the 8000-mark at 8088.60, but down 181.85 points or 2.2%. Intraday, the index
touched a low of 7927.05 points. After falling to the day's low of 25911.33, the Sensex ended at
26397.71, down 604.51 points or 2.2%. The June futures of Nifty 50 settled at 8086.90 yesterday, at
a discount of 1.7 points to the spot index, compared with the 13-point discount intraday as short
positions got covered. Open interest in the contract fell 15.43% to 13.44 mln. We seen the reaction
in the global markets to the UK referendum is an exaggerated one. Any reaction of this sort presents
a buying opportunity.

Trends in the global markets and monsoon will also lend cues to shares next week. The progress of
monsoon so far is satisfactory. Another positive is the latest policy announcements to encourage FDI
in several sectors. It is also noted that midcaps have been fairly resilient through the fall yesterday.
Sectors looking positive on Agriculture and consumption-related stocks, while it is bearish on
companies that have exposure to the UK, such as Tata Motors, Tata Steel and selected pharmaceutical companies. Another positive that the market may see on account of the UK's exit is the fall in commodity prices, particularly crude oil. This fall will aid reduction of India's current account deficit and also inflation rates which would create room for the Reserve Bank of India to ease interest rates.

Among stocks, stocks of Tata Motors are seen extending losses and may fall up to 400 rupees in the
short-term. According to reports, the company's UK-based arm Jaguar Land Rover's annual profits
could fall by 1 bln pound sterling up till 2020 due to 'Brexit'. JLR contributes 90% to Tata Motors'
revenues, while the UK market contributes 20% of the sales. Yesterday, the stock was the worst hit on Nifty 50, down nearly 8% at 449.40 rupees.

( www.rupeedesk.in ) 
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Indian Market Weekly Outlook & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook for the Week - 13.Jun.2016 to 17.Jun.2016

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Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 13.Jun.2016 to 17.Jun.2016 (Economic data, US Fed policy key triggers next week)

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( www.rupeedesk.in ) 


The key domestic economic data, outcome of the US Federal Open Market Committee meet, and result of the MSCI index review will drive equity markets in the coming week. While industrial growth data for April is due, inflation data for May based on both the Consumer Price Index and Wholesale Price Index will be announced on Monday and Tuesday, respectively.

Any negative development will trigger selling, but market participants do not see the 8000-point mark being broken on Nifty 50. The growth in India's industrial production is likely to rise to 1.0% in April from 0.1% a month ago, on the back of an improvement in core sectors.

The IIP data will not have a major impact but there might be a knee-jerk reaction if it is below expectations. Market participants are expecting the CPI inflation to be in the range of 5.3-5.5% this time. After the Reserve Bank of India, in its monetary policy, cited upside risks to inflation, the to be released data is crucial as it may decide the future course of action to be taken by the central bank on key interest rates.

In April, consumer price inflation had risen to a three-month high of 5.39%, primarily due to a rise in food prices. On the global front, investors are uncertain about the policy action of the US Federal Reserve in the backdrop of Chair Janet Yellen's recent comments and the country's jobs report data for May. The market capitalisation of A-shares is the second highest after US stocks. Inclusion of these shares will see foreign funds shifting money from emerging markets to these shares.
( www.rupeedesk.in ) 
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Indian Market Weekly Outlook & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook for the Week - 6.Jun.2016 to 10.Jun.2016

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Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 6.Jun.2016 to 10.Jun.2016 (RBI policy in focus next week; bias positive)

( www.rupeedesk.in ) 

The Reserve Bank of India's bi-monthly monetary policy will be the focus next week for the equities market, and any positive commentary or move by the Indian central bank will provide a further leg-up to the current momentum in stocks. Although the unanimous opinion is that the RBI will maintain a status quo on rates, direction on further interest rates, and more importantly, governor Raghuram Rajan's second term at the RBI will be watched.

Due to a number of macro events slated and its inclination towards having a better clarity on inflation trajectory the Reserve Bank may choose to repeat its commitment towards having a accommodative policy based on its inflation expectation. The Reports that Rajan is not "interested" in a second tenure at RBI had driven capital markets have been edgy earlier this week. RBI will detail its monetary policy on Tuesday. The Benchmark indices tested their seven-month highs intraday, ending the second consecutive week with gains. This data is important, and will be a key indictor for shares on Monday, as it gives hints about the US Federal Open Market Committee's likely action on interest rates.

The US Federal Reserve will start its two-day monetary policy meeting on the 14th of this month. Reports suggest that the US central bank is unlikely to raise interest rates in the June meeting as it awaits Britain's referendum on its membership in the European Union. For domestic shares, the progress of the monsoon will also be pivotal. On Friday, there may be some caution in equities ahead of the release of the Industrial production data for April.

( www.rupeedesk.in ) 
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Indian Market Weekly Outlook & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook for the Week - 23.May.2016 to 27.May.2016

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Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 23.May.2016 to 27.May.2016 (Seen stock specific next week; earnings in focus)

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Indian Market Weekly Outlook & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook for the Week - 9.May.2016 to 13.May.2016

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Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 09.May.2016 to 13.May.2016 Seen up; key Jan-Mar earnings to be in focus


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Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 09.May.2016 to 13.May.2016 Seen up; key Jan-Mar earnings to be in focus

( www.rupeedesk.in ) 


Global markets are likely to dictate the trend for benchmark share indices next week, with the Jan-   Mar earnings of key companies likely to keep the action stock-specific. The underlying bias for equities is positive after the indices declined significantly this week. This week, the index declined 1.5% to 7733.45 points. Yesterday, the Nifty 50 ended flat in a volatile session, as investors cautiously awaited data on US non-farm payrolls for April. The S&P 500 futures extended losses and were down 0.5%, against 0.3% earlier, as lower additions of non-farm jobs stoked fear that the US economy may not be in the pink of health. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were also  down 0.5%.

In April, 160,000 non-farm jobs were added, lower than the 215,000 added in March. At 5.0%, the
unemployment rate was unchanged from the previous month. In India, market participants remain
positive about the economy, even while keeping an eye on weak global markets. The recent correction in equities has led investors to reallocate their portfolios, and they are going long on the banking sector. Market participants are also positive about the automobile sector, especially after most companies reported robust sales numbers for April.

EARNINGS WATCH

Corporate earnings for Jan-Mar will be a crucial factor for markets next week, with five Nifty 50
constituents--Hindustan Unilever, Zee Entertainment Enterprises, Asian Paints, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Dr Reddy's Laboratories--reporting their earnings. Grasim Industries will report its earnings on Saturday. Index heavyweight Hindustan Unilever is expected to report a 1% fall in quarterly net profit at 10.1 bln rupees on Monday. Yesterday, the stock ended up 0.4% at 853.40 rupees. Stocks of Dr Reddy's Laboratories, which will report its earnings on Thursday, are seen trading with a negative bias. Yesterday, the stock ended down 2.2% at 2,866.30 rupees. Other companies reporting their Jan-Mar earnings next week are SRF, Apollo Tyres, Chambal Fertilisers & Chemicals, Havells India, Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, and Nestle India.

( www.rupeedesk.in )
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Indian Market Weekly Outlook & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook for the Week - 25.Apr.2016 to 29.Apr.2016

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Indian Market Outlook for the week – 25 to 29.04.2016 (Earnings to set trend next week; Reliance in focus)

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 ( www.rupeedesk.in ) 



Next week, more momentum is likely to be seen in specific stocks rather than benchmark indices, as several companies are scheduled to report quarterly earnings. Besides, the April futures contracts will expire next week, which will introduce volatility in equities.

Among several other stocks, Reliance Industries will be on top of the radar for investors as the index-major reports earnings later. The stock has seen very little action in the past two-three sessions, indicating reluctance among investors to take positions before the
earnings. Even if earnings are positive, market participants see gains in shares of RIL capped at 1,100.00 rupees. Yesterday, the stock ended down 0.2% at 1,038.95 rupees.

The underlying bias for the market remains positive as benchmark indices have ended
in the green for the second consecutive week, despite ending down today due to profit
booking. Market participants are bullish on the banking pack, especially the public
sector ones, and expect them to continue their northward journey next week.

 ( www.rupeedesk.in ) 
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Indian Market Weekly Outlook & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook for the Week - 18.Apr.2016 to 22.Apr.2016

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Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 18.Apr.2016 to 22.Apr.2016

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 ( www.rupeedesk.in ) 


Earnings of key companies--Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services, Wipro, Cairn India, and HDFC Bank--for the quarter ended March will give direction to share indices next week. Investor sentiment and the bias for equities remains positive after benchmark indices ended at a three-month high last week,

Technically, The Nifty 50 may test the psychological level of 8000 points, if it crosses its immediate resistance of 7920 points. Last trading day, hope of a good monsoon and benign inflation lifted the index up 141.50 points or 1.8% to 7850.45, its highest level since Jan 1.

The 50-stock index breached its 50-day exponential moving average of 7770 points wednesday, and now finds support at that level. On Monday, global markets would be an important factor for equities as investors come back after an extended weekend on account of Ambedkar Jayanti on Thursday and Ram Navami on Friday.

RESULTS EYED

The information technology giant is likely to report a 3% sequential rise in its Jan-Mar consolidated net profit to 35.5 bln rupees. Other IT majors—Tata Consultancy Services and Wipro--will report their earnings on Monday and Apr 20, respectively.

TCS is seen reporting a 3% sequential growth in its Jan-Mar consolidated net profit to
62.87 bln rupees, boosted by foreign exchange gains and a 4% expansion in topline. Cairn India and HDFC Bank will report their earnings on Apr 22.

 ( www.rupeedesk.in )
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Indian Market Weekly Outlook & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook for the Week - 11.Apr.2016 to 15.Apr.2016

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Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 11.Apr.2016 to 15.Apr.2016 (Subdued in shortened week; cos' earnings eyed)

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( www.rupeedesk.in ) 



Having lost 2% in the past five sessions, equities are set to remain subdued in the holiday-shortened week ahead in the run-up to the corporate earnings that will set the
tone for shares in the short- to medium-term.

Stock markets are closed on Thursday for Dr. Baba Saheb Ambedkar Jayanti and the
next day for Ram Navami. We believe the upcoming earning season, which is scheduled to begin next week, will provide the needed trigger for directional move.

Market participants should continue with stock-specific trading approach but avoid
overleveraging. Market participants are eagerly awaiting the results for the quarter and
the year ended Mar 31 as the previous financial year has been a difficult one for corporate India.

Sluggish demand in domestic and international markets due to global economic slowdown, particularly in China, hit companies' topline and bottomline growth in 2015-
16 (Apr-Mar).

( www.rupeedesk.in ) 
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Indian Market Weekly Outlook & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook for the Week - 4.Apr.2016 to 8.Mar.2016

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Indian Market Outlook for the week – 04 to 08.04.2016 RBI policy eyed next week; 25-bps rate cut seen

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( www.rupeedesk.in ) 


For the coming week, all eyes would be on the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy, scheduled for Tuesday, before which indices are seen trading in a narrow range with a positive bias as investors maintain caution. Our base case (scenario is) that Governor Rajan cuts (interest rates by) 25 bps on Tuesday (and August) but signals a pause in June. A dovish scenario would be the RBI cutting key interest rates by 50 basis points and supporting more liquidity by reducing cash reserve ratio by 25 bps or increasing the open market operations. In our view, this (a dovish scenario) is a low probability event.

In the third situation, the sentiment may be weighed down by hawkish comments from RBI Governor
Raghuram Rajan, citing multiple risks to the RBI's 5% inflation target for 2016-17 (Apr-Mar), such as a possible third El Nino year or a rebound in oil prices, or a probable rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in June that may weaken the rupee. We see this (the hawkish outlook) as an even lower probability event as high lending rates have pulled down growth to an estimated 4.6% in the December quarter in the old GDP series. Banks and other rate sensitive sectors--capital goods, infrastructure, automobiles, and real estate--are likely to be in focus on account of RBI's monetary policy.

The index yesterday ended 0.2% higher at 16174.90 points on hope of a 25-bps rate cut by the RBI. We believe markets have factored in a 25-bps rate cut and will rise if the RBI cuts rates by 50 bps. Domestic markets are also seen taking cues from global markets, where investors are grappling with fears of a slowdown in world economy and central banks' measures to ease monetary policy which are not seen having much effect. Domestic benchmark indices declined yesterday, tracking weakness in the global markets. Sentiment world over was hit as a reading of Tankan survey of manufacturers' sentiment by Bank of Japan for Jan-Mar halved on quarter, raising concerns that the central bank's negative interest rate policy was doing little for the country's growth. 

The Nifty 50 and the S&P BSE Sensex ended down 0.3% each at 7713.05 points and 25269.64 points, respectively. The automobile sector would also be in focus as many companies report their sales numbers for March. Post market hours yesterday, Tata Motors reported its total sales of 53,057 units, which were up just 1% on year. Stocks of Tata Motors ended down 1.8% at 379.65 rupees.

Among the defensives, pharmaceutical stocks are seen trading with a negative bias next week on account of regulatory concerns surrounding many companies.


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